Populism is the result of global economic failure

Political revolts are inevitable in a world where employees are wage slaves and bosses super rich

The rise of populism has rattled the global political establishment. Brexit came as a shock, as did the victory of Donald Trump. Much head-scratching has resulted as leaders seek to work out why large chunks of their electorates are so cross.

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Those responsible for global financial crisis got away with it while those who were innocent bore the brunt of austerity

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Wall Street’s love affair with Trump cools as healthcare bill sows welcome doubts

US president’s failure to win backing for his repeal of Obamacare has delivered a dose of reality to the markets

Wall Street’s uncritical love affair with Donald Trump is over. For five months, traders have swallowed whole the idea that the president would swiftly get a package of tax cuts through a Republican-dominated Congress, giving a boost to growth and corporate profits in the process.

Yet the first real test of Trump’s ability to get lawmakers to do his bidding – the repeal of Obamacare – has been a disaster. The resistance on Capitol Hill has left the financial markets wondering when – and indeed whether – Trump will be able to deliver on his fiscal boost.

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Thought Mike Ashley was hard to work for? Meet Jennifer Hardy

The woman from the agency at the centre of the Sports Direct scandal is up before the select committee this week

While Sports Direct founder Mike Ashley was undoubtedly the stand-out performer at June’s business, innovation and skills select committee hearing into the retailer’s treatment of staff, the show put on by Transline’s Jennifer Hardy is often overlooked.

She is the finance chief of the temporary employment agency whose performance prompted committee chairman Iain Wright to accuse her of deliberately misleading MPs, after Hardy claimed the firm lost its gangmaster licence following an “administrative error … not a misdemeanour”.

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From smugglers to supermarkets: the ‘informal economy’ touches us all

You may think that a smuggler in the Tunisian desert has nothing to do with your trip to the supermarket. You’re wrong

As I talk to him, Ahmed pulls his chair into his store to escape the hot Tunisian sun. He is a retired teacher – the years of screaming children can be counted in the rings framing his eyes. Behind him is his merchandise. To make up for a small pension, Ahmed is selling kitchenware in a market near the Libyan border, over four hundred tiny concrete garages surround him, goods piled high: clothes, bags, microwaves. It looks like any other market, but note an invisible detail: everything sold here is illegal. Every good in this market has been smuggled into Tunisia. Ahmed, though he may not look the part, is a smuggler.

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‘The Brexit vote is starting to have major negative consequences’ – experts debate the data

Two former members of the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee discuss the outlook for this year

Professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank’s MPC from June 2006 to May 2009

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Brexit economy: UK faces squeeze on living standards

The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds signs of a slowdown as prices rise and real pay shrinks

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British households are being warned to prepare for a tightening squeeze on living standards, as a Guardian analysis shows the Brexit vote’s blow to the pound is stoking inflation while pay packets are shrinking in real terms.

As Theresa May prepares to trigger article 50 next week, kicking off the formal process of the UK leaving the EU, the economy continues to defy the doomsayers who predicted a sudden downturn after the referendum. But signs of a slowdown are now emerging as higher prices put pressure on companies and consumers alike.

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Markets cautious after crucial US healthcare vote delayed – business live

Trump issued an ultimatum after the vote was postponed on his bill to replace Obamacare, raising fears about his ability to push through other growth-boosting reforms

Here are the specific numbers for those stronger-than-expected German and French PMIs.

(Anything above 50 indicates growth.)

Closely-watched surveys from Germany and France suggest Europe’s two largest economies enjoyed a strong March.

Growth accelerated in the manufacturing and services sectors in both countries compared with February according to the Markit PMI surveys, beating economists’ expectations.

The March flash PMI results rounded off a strong first quarter for the Germany economy, which enters the spring growing at the fastest rate in nearly six years. The PMI data strongly suggest that economic growth will accelerate in the first quarter.

These numbers paint a rosy picture of the French private sector, as we start to see the effect of various governmental reforms enacted over the last few years. Meanwhile, a high level of business optimism continues to have a positive influence on firms hiring decisions, and can be attributed to a widespread expectation of pro-business policies after May’s presidential elections.

Caution on Wall Street last night has carried through to Europe this morning as a subdued trading session gets underway.

Here are the early scores:

Here’s our full story on Trump’s ultimatum:

Related: House plans Friday healthcare vote as Trump gives ultimatum to Republicans

Wall Street closed down last down but it could have been a lot worse after Trump had to admit defeat (for the time being at least) on the US healthcare bill, which seeks to replace Obamacare.

Trump took gamble on Thursday by issuing an ultimatum: pass the bill in its current form or we’re sticking with Obamacare.

We are taking action to #RepealANDReplace #Obamacare! Contact your Rep & tell them you support #AHCA. #PassTheBill https://t.co/opzrXJigGA pic.twitter.com/C7snoRafPI

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Another day, another wait to see if Donald Trump’s healthcare bill will pass muster after delays on Thursday. Markets are nervous that a failure could dent Trump’s tax and spending plans, which have been boosting share values ever since the election. But it may not be that simple. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said:

A validation would … grant Trump the credibility on his ability to pass through his fiscal policies, including tax reforms and large infrastructure spending. An eventual failure could let down investors, yet it is worth noting that the major market focus is still on the US’ fiscal plans and the Trump administration could carry on with its expansive fiscal plans regardless of a disappointment on the health-care bill.

We get to see whether the recent economic recovery in France and Germany has maintained its traction from January and February, with the latest flash PMI’s for March in the manufacturing and services sectors.

France in particular saw a strong performance in the services sector in February, and this looks like it could well be sustained in March with only a slight slowdown expected to 56.2 from 56.4. Manufacturing remains a slight laggard, but is still expected to come in at 52.4.

Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7345 up 4
$DAX 12047 up 8
$CAC 5027 down 6$IBEX 10315 down 10$MIB 20147 down 20

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Latrobe Valley paper plant sounds alarm over Indonesian dumping

Maryvale’s Australian Paper, the only copy paper manufacturer in the country, urges government to hold firm on tariffs to keep out subsidised imports

Australia’s only copy paper manufacturer, one of the largest remaining employers in Gippsland’s Latrobe Valley, is concerned free trade negotiations with Indonesia could frustrate moves to impose anti-dumping tariffs.

The Anti-Dumping Commission filed its report on paper imports to the federal government on Friday, after a 10-month investigation.

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