All the day’s economic and financial news, as Germany suffers a worrying drop in exports
German isn’t the only European country hitting a soft patch.
Spain’s industrial output shrank by 0.1% in September, official data shows, the first drop since July 2016.
Les industriels révisent à la baisse leurs prévisions d’investissement pour 2018 à -1 % vs +4 % attendu en juillet (+4 % attendu pour l’instant pour 2019). Fort recul de l’invest par l’industrie auto (-10 % en 2018 mais +8 % attendu pour 2019) https://t.co/8WcppUwozL pic.twitter.com/HJWplgKyMv
I’m not too worried about the euro area cyclical soft patch. This, however, is a much bigger concern: French manufacturers have reduced their investment plans for this year, when the hope was that capex would drive (potential) growth higher. https://t.co/rUXyvJ0RGu
European stock markets have shrugged off Germany’s export slowdown.
The Stoxx 600 index has risen by 0.6%, as shares benefit from the prospect of the Democrats keeping Donald Trump in check.
There is very little going on, and yet there’s a lot happening.
US election uncertainty removed, equity markets hope they’ve found the ideal combination of slightly less fiscal easing and slightly less monetary tightening that a more restrained president Trump will have to deliver. An outbreak of glee has hit markets….
German factory chiefs will be hoping for a breakthrough in the US-China trade dispute soon, before the slump in exports deepens.
And overnight, a top Chinese diplomat has suggest that presidents Trump and Xi could make progress at the G20 world leaders’ meeting in Argentina in three weeks time.
“China is committed to working with the U.S. to achieve a no-confrontational, conflictless, mutually respectful co-operation in which both sides win.
“Both sides should seek an appropriate solution through equal and mutually beneficial negotiations.”
Carsten Brzeski of ING agrees that Germany exporters are suffering from slowing world trade.
He also blames new car emissions tests; production has suffered as automakers scramble to meet these tough new rules.
Today’s trade data ends a disappointing week for German industry. Available monthly data suggests that the economy had its worst quarterly performance in 3Q since the beginning of 2015.
The first GDP estimate will be released next week on Wednesday.
The 0.8% drop in German exports in September is the biggest since February.
The FT reckons it “could be another sign that Europe’s largest economy is feeling the effects of a slowdown in global trade”.
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More econ doom from #Germany: In Sep, exports dropped by 0.8% MoM. German exports have now dropped in 4 out of the last 6 mths, ING says. In the same time, imports decreased by 0.4% MoM, which narrowed trade balance to €17.6bn from €18.2bn, way below forecast of €18bn. pic.twitter.com/fxqugmoNfh